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April 25-6 TOR-CON Here...

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April 25-6 TOR-CON Here...

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 4/25/2011, 10:40 am

Severe Weather Overview

On Monday an upper trough reaches the Gulf of Mexico moisture and generates a surface low. Wind shear and instability ahead of it will be very favorable for tornadoes (and worsen flood woes).

Forecast for Monday, April 25

AL - northwest - 3 to 4 night
AR - 7
DE - 2
IL south half - 5
IN south half - 3
KS southeast - 3
KY north - 3
KY west - 4 to 5
KY central - 4 night
LA northwest 4
LA north - 4 night
MD - 2
MO south - 7
MO east-central - 5
MO west-central - 4 to 5
MS north - 3 to 4 night
NJ south - 2
OH south half - 3
OK southeast - 7
OK south-central - 4 to 5
OK northeast - 4
PA south - 2
TN west half - 3 to 4 late evening and night
TX north-central - 5
TX northeast - 7
WV north half - 2

Forecast for Tuesday, April 26

AL northwest - 5
AR east and south - 3 to 4
AR - 3 to 4 night (except northwest)
IL south - 3 to 4
IN east - 5
IN west-central and southwest - 4
KY - 5
LA north - 5
MI east and south - 3 to 4
MO southeast - 3 to 4
MS north half - 5
NY west and north - 3
OH west - 5
OH east - 4
OK south-central and southeast - 3 to 4 night
PA west - 3 to 4
TN west - 6
TN middle - 5
TX east-central - 5
WV west - 3

Tuesday certainly not as bad for most. But, as always, stay vigilant....and be prepared.

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Re: April 25-6 TOR-CON Here...

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 4/27/2011, 5:25 pm

I didn't update things today, and for those of you living in the upper and middle south regions, I apologize if you've been depending on these even the slightest bit.

I just flipped on the Weather Channel to see floods and the storms down by you guys, and I saw a first.........the first TOR-CON rating of a 10 ever given.....for northern Alabama. What does this mean?

First, it does NOT mean you will be hit by a tornado. That's impossible to predict. But, it does mean you will undoubtedly see tornadoes within 50 miles of you. This means there will be a widespread tornado outbreak in northern Alabama. So, be vigilant down there....though you likely already know this.

Currently, there are tornado warnings all over the region. Y'all are in for a rough night. Stay safe.

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Re: April 25-6 TOR-CON Here...

Post  FarmerValerie on 4/27/2011, 5:49 pm

I keep one eye on the weather at ALL times, this new TOR-CON thingy may be just hype to some, and after seeing the online live weather blog on my local news last night and the people who take it litteral (as in a prediction) I can see how local weather man can get (and did last night) frustrated, BUT yesterday I saw ours go up to a 9, it got BAD here. We had something blow over us Sunday night that as soon as it passed turned into a tornado. I take the TOR-CON as a probability or likelyhood that tornados will be developing in a certain area, kinda like odds in vegas. So far they have been pretty good for our area. However, the national weather should never be a substitute for your local weather man, he/she knows your area. Add to that someone like BBG who has been working his behind off to keep us all updated, and I'd say we all have a pretty good chance of staying ahead of the weather, or at least being prepared, well, as preprared as we can be.
BBG! Oh and I saw some chasers on live stream that were in our part of the country last night. You know it's getting bad when you see a chaser go by, as someone said recently.

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Re: April 25-6 TOR-CON Here...

Post  BackyardBirdGardner on 4/27/2011, 6:12 pm

I am growing to love the TOR-CON stuff. At first, I thought it was gimmicky, too. However, I don't think so.

It is NOT a forecast, and isn't advertised as such. Vegas odds is a great analogy to use. They are ratings broken into 10% increments of you seeing a tornado within 50 miles. That's close, but tornadoes, as we know, can pass right down the street behind your house and not do damage to yours. All this number does is give you an idea of how seriously you need to be paying attention in your immediate area THAT DAY!

That's all it's good for. But, it's proving to be very good.

This isn't a new technology. Dr. Forbes is just the first to put it to a number and percentage. If you remember, it wasn't long ago that we called for a 30% chance of rain for the day. People think it means there's literally a 30% chance. Not so. It means that over the forecast area (set up by the NWS) 30% of the ENTIRE area will see measureable precipitation.

If I drew a box over your neighborhood of ten houses and said you had 30% chance of rain....all I'm telling you is that 3 of the 10 houses will see some rain. I don't know which 3.

TOR-CON is similar. Take the same rating of 3. I am saying that 3 of the houses will see a tornado within a house or two of them. I don't know which 3 houses will see the tornado, and I'm not saying they will be destroyed. I am only saying that you may want to pay attention because it's possible today. If I change that number to a 7, you can see where I am telling you there is a much better chance of a tornado coming through your yard. And, I am telling you that you had better take things more seriously today than on a day I say it's a 3.


When TOR-CONs go over 7, I get serious. A 9, or 10, would really have my attention. And, it should you, too.

That's where I think this is such a good warning indicator. Good warnings, well in advance, are saving lives. More so this year than any other. Fatalities are fortunately getting more and more rare with tornadoes because of advanced warning. Don't blow off the sirens when they sound. Go to the TV and look closely at the radar. Then, determine if you are in danger or not.

To add, the real killer by tornadoes has historically been darkness. Nighttime tornadoes are usually the killers. People are sleeping, don't hear the sirens, and don't get the warnings becase their TVs are off. TOR-CON is quickly becoming a way of warning well in advance so you will check in again before you go to bed on those days. Over 50% of the tornado reports, as of mine on Good Friday, have been nighttime tornadoes. Yet, fewer people are dying this year than in any other when compared to the confirmed tornado reports this spring. This isn't coincidence. And, it's fabulous news in the severe weather forecasting industry.

In our area this week, you all likely know that the STL airport was hit by a strong tornado. If you've seen the pictures, you have seen the houses destroyed. Those pictures are pretty shocking. Ten years ago, people would have died. Miraculously, no one died last Friday. That is all because of advanced warning, tv, and the sirens calling attention to the weather.

Hmmmm, can any of you tell what I studied in school now?

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